A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
