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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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